The business environment is becoming more volatile and vulnerable to unforeseen risks. Geopolitical instability, tougher regulations, supply chain tensions, and the rise of artificial intelligence are redefining the conditions of competitiveness for all French companies, regardless of their size or sector.
The delay in meeting climate goals is creating growing constraints.
None of the 45 key climate action indicators tracked by World Resources Institute is on track to meet the goals set for 2030. The global share of electricity from solar and wind has more than tripled since 2015, and spending on clean energy surpassed fossil fuel investments for the second year in a row in 2024, but the pace remains insufficient. Meeting the 2030 targets would require phasing out coal more than ten times faster than currently. Heavy industries like steel and cement continue to be major contributors to emissions, despite ongoing innovations.
How to anticipate it Sectoral regulatory pathways must be integrated into medium-term strategic plans as certain constraints, not hypothetical risks. Decarbonization investments that generate a direct economic return (energy efficiency, process optimization) allow this constraint to be treated as a lever for competitiveness rather than an unavoidable cost.
2. Environmental reporting: an obligation that extends up the entire chain
The European CSRD directive requires large companies to publish detailed information on their environmental and social impact, including that of their suppliers. Scope 3 (indirect emissions across the entire value chain) represents an average of 75 % to 90 % of an organization's total carbon footprint. In France, the first wave is already in effect for large companies; the second phase is planned between 2027 and 2028. This evolution is gradually redefining the conditions for access to markets, financing, and business partnerships.
How to anticipate it Applicable reporting obligations must be mapped by sector, company size, and markets, distinguishing between immediate deadlines and future horizons. Systems for collecting emissions data must be put in place without delay (implementation timelines are systematically underestimated), including by companies not directly subject to the obligation, who will receive requests from their clients.
3. Strategic Supplies: A Fragility to Map
China processes more than 70 % of the top twenty minerals essential for energy production: copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, and graphite. The International Energy Agency predicts that global copper supply will fall short of demand by 30 % by 2035; mining giant BHP anticipates a 70 % increase in this demand by 2050. Geopolitical conflicts and trade disputes are also reshaping global supply chains, prompting companies to seek suppliers geographically closer or located in countries considered aligned.
How to anticipate it A mapping of supplier dependencies helps identify at-risk geographic concentrations for critical components. Diversifying supply sources, even at a short-term additional cost, reduces exposure to disruptions. Strategic contracts should be reviewed to include price revision, force majeure, and substitution clauses adapted to the current context.
4. Artificial Intelligence: Mastering Deployment to Extract Value
88 % des entreprises mondiales utilisent l’intelligence artificielle dans au moins une fonction. Selon McKinsey, cette technologie atteint une masse critique plus rapidement que ne l’avaient fait Internet ou le smartphone. Pourtant, le MIT établit que seulement 5 % des projets pilotes parviennent à une accélération rapide des revenus. Les organisations ayant adopté une approche structurée obtiennent en revanche un retour moyen de 3,70 euros pour chaque euro investi. Les causes d’échec sont récurrentes : décisions d’achat mal éclairées, manque de leadership, ressources insuffisantes. Le recours à des prestataires spécialisés réussit deux fois plus souvent que le développement interne.
How to anticipate it The scope of application, performance indicators, and return on investment timeframe must be defined before any investment. The energy consumption of deployed tools (data centers consumed 415 terawatt-hours in 2024, a figure expected to double by 2030) must also be integrated into the company's environmental assessment, at the risk of contradicting its stated sustainability commitments.
How to successfully deploy artificial intelligence in a company? Successful deployments share three characteristics: a precisely defined use case, the use of specialized service providers, and rigorous monitoring of return on investment.
5. Access to financing: evaluation criteria have evolved
Global private equity has over $2.5 trillion in uncalled capital. Funds have shifted away from broad ESG narratives to focus on governance factors with measurable impacts on cash flow, risk, and exit value. A study by Harvard Business Review portant sur 75 grandes entreprises mondiales confirme que seulement 13 % d’entre elles ont réduit leurs engagements environnementaux et sociaux, la majorité les maintient ou les renforce, parce qu’ils produisent des résultats économiques mesurables.
How to anticipate it Financial and non-financial data must be structured in a usable and auditable format, independent of any fundraising project. Investor presentations must be based on verifiable data and concrete demonstrations of risk management. The quality of governance remains the primary criterion examined during due diligence.
Find the complete international analysis from Moore Global: Resilience is key in a world of turmoil
